How Long Will South Africa Survive? Revised and Updated


How Long Will SA Survive
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How Long Will South Africa Survive? Revised and Updated

RW Johnson

ISBN 9781868427628

In 1977, RW Johnson’s best-selling How Long Will South Africa Survive? provided a controversial and highly original analysis of the survival prospects of apartheid. Now, after more than twenty years of ANC rule, he believes the situation has become so critical that the question must be posed again.

‘The big question about ANC rule’, he writes, ‘is whether African nationalism would be able to cope with the challenges of running a modern industrial economy. Twenty years of ANC rule have shown conclusively that the party is hopelessly ill-equipped for this task. Indeed, everything suggests that South Africa under the ANC is fast slipping backward and that even the survival of South Africa as a unitary state cannot be taken for granted. The fundamental reason why the question of regime change has to be posed is that it is now clear that South Africa can either choose to have an ANC government or it can have a modern industrial economy. It cannot have both.’

Johnson’s analysis is strikingly original and cogently argued. He has for several decades now been the senior international commentator on South African affairs, known for his lucid analysis and complete lack of deference towards the conventional wisdom.



The Author

RW Johnson is an Emeritus Fellow of Magdalen College, Oxford, and was the only South African Rhodes Scholar to return to live in South Africa after the fall of apartheid. He has published twelve books, scores of academic articles and innumerable articles for the international press.

His former students include three members of the current British cabinet, an editor of The Economist and a large number of leading academics and journalists. He lives in Cape Town.





Reviews, News & Interviews:

[Johnson] has written another immensely readable and disturbing book. Let us pray that his prophecies are this time mistaken. -Rian Malan, The Spectator

This is a masterpiece in unembellished reality … a book to be savoured, slowly digested and mulled over. -Alec Hogg, BizNews

This book will undoubtedly be met with outrage among South Africa's political and intellectual elite.’ Stephen Ellis, author of External Mission: The ANC in Exile, 1960-90

A book every South African should read and take heed of. -Raphael de Kadt, Journal of the Helen Suzman Foundation